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Increased risk of COVID-19 infection among young people in Germany

A recent study suggested young adults ages 20-24 are primarily responsible for the transmission of the coronavirus. But, says a DW report, the reality of how the virus spreads is more complicated.

A new study about German compliance with soon-to-be-relaxed social distancing rules achieved massive buzz on social media, with headlines claiming that young people were much more likely to break the regulations and thus continue the spread of the novel coronavirus. The idea was particularly digestible after a weekend in which many photos emerged of young people crowding parks in big cities, and taking part in anti-lockdown protests. But, the report asks, is that conclusion really borne out by the data?

The study was conducted by epidemiologists Edward Goldstein and Marc Lipsitch at the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health using data from the Germany Centre for Disease Control, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI). Using data on the number of confirmed coronavirus infections in the last week of March and the beginning of April, the scientists concluded that the relative risk (RR) for COVID-19 cases for residents of Germany aged between 15-34, and particularly between 20-24, was noticeably higher than all other age groups. They also determined that similar patterns had emerged in South Korea, where individuals 20-29 years old had the highest number of detected cases.

However, the paper also notes that the scientists were thus far unable to determine the reason behind the increased risk. Though they do mention "the possibility of elevated mixing because of lesser adherence to physical distancing guidelines for persons aged 15–34 years," they neglect to touch on the fact that many young people are more likely to work in high-contact jobs, for example in service industries. Though many of these sectors were temporarily shuttered during the lockdown, the period of study includes a time when many young people could have contracted the disease at work before the new regulations came into place.

The study also does not note that young people are less likely to own cars, and therefore have a continued need for public transportation, or factors specific to Germany, such as the fact that the outbreak in the country originated with young people returning from skiing holidays in Austria and then coming together to celebrate Carnival – the festive season widely celebrated in western and southern Germany – the spreading the virus in a more concentrated manner amongst their age cohort during large public gatherings.

The report says despite viral images of picnickers and protesters on social media, there is no scientific evidence that young people are more likely to disregard social distancing rules in Germany.

Abstract
The ongoing pandemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused more than 1,991,000 detected cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) illness worldwide and claimed more than 130,800 lives as at 16 April 2020 [1]. As rates of contact between individuals in different age groups under the current physical distancing measures are expected to depart considerably from the regular mixing patterns [2], there is uncertainty regarding the role of different age groups in propagating the SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in different countries. While disease is most severe in older age groups, a sizeable share of COVID-19-related hospitalisations in the United States and other countries occurs in individuals aged 20–55 years [3]. A study of close contacts of COVID-19 cases in China found comparable rates of infection with SARS-CoV-2 in different age groups [4]. South Korea employed one of the most inclusive testing practices for SARS-CoV-2 in the world, and the rate of detected cases in South Korea is highest in persons aged 20–29 years [5].

Here, we apply a methodology we developed earlier [6,7] to data from the Robert Koch Institute on COVID-19 cases in Germany [8] to assess the relative roles of different age groups in SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Authors
Edward Goldstein, Marc Lipsitch

[link url="https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-in-germany-are-young-people-truly-to-blame/a-53354588?maca=en-newsletter_en_gns-16215-xml-newsletter&r=1716947683141595&lid=1478395&pm_ln=25725"]Full DW report[/link]

[link url="https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.17.2000596;jsessionid=F6dncs_PRqKffQ4IiRnVeXnZ.i-0b3d9850f4681504f-ecdclive"]Eurosurveillance abstract[/link]

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