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Scientists 'deeply divided' over how UK should leave lockdown

The Sage committee of scientists advising the UK government has been split by “heated arguments” over how the country should leave lockdown. The Daily Telegraph reports that this is according to Professor Peter Horby, who said key experts had been deeply divided over the scientific evidence guiding the UK’s coronavirus response, amid a lack of reliable data.

Scientists on the committee are understood to have argued fiercely about the use of face masks, the likelihood of immunity, and the rate at which lockdown measures should be eased.

According to the report, Horby, chair of the UK Government's New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), said “imperfect” statistics had made the task of guiding government more difficult. He said scientists needed more reliable data, especially around the so-called ‘R value’ which measures the spread of COVID-19 across the country. “There’s very robust discussions at those meetings and there are frequently quite heated arguments,” Horby said.

Asked whether the R rate was “at best, a guess”, he replied: “It’s an estimate. It’s based on all sorts of data sources, all of which are imperfect, and you try and put them all together to get the best idea. What we need to focus on is improving the data streams. We need to get data much quicker on the number of people infected in the community. That will allow us to have a much more precise idea of what’s happening and that we can calibrate the public health response so that we can keep it under control.”

The report says a number of scientists on the Sage committee believe that the slow rollout of mass testing has left the UK unable to effectively monitor the spread of COVID-19, it is understood.

Sir Patrick Vallance,  the chief scientific advisor, said last month of Sage discussions: “The weaker the evidence and the more controversial it is the more heated and prolonged the discussions are, and the more opinion becomes the dominant feature.”

Meanwhile a censorship row between scientific advisors and the government prompted a major U-turn. Scientists had accused ministers of “Stalinist” behaviour after key advice guiding the coronavirus response was redacted from a report released to the public.

One member of the government’s SPI-B advisory committee, Stephen Reicher, a professor of social psychology at the University of St Andrews, wrote on social media: “The greatest asset we have in this crisis is the trust and adherence of the public. You want trust? You need to be open with people. This isn’t open. It is reminiscent of Stalinist Russia. Not a good look.”

Yesterday the documents were released in full, revealing that some experts had advised the government not to impose heavy fines on people who broke lockdown rules.

[link url="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/10/sage-committee-split-heated-arguments-scientist-reveals/?WT.mc_id=e_DM1245457&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_FAM_New_ES&utmsource=email&utm_medium=Edi_FAM_New_ES20200511&utm_campaign=DM1245457"]Full report in The Daily Telegraph[/link]

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