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UK death rate 'could be the worst in Europe', with 66,000 deaths by August

World-leading disease data analysts have projected that the UK will become the country worst hit by the coronavirus pandemic in Europe, accounting for more than 40% of total deaths across the continent. In the US, the White House has reviewed is estimate slightly downwards, to 81,000 deaths by August.

The Guardian reports that the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle predicts 66,000 UK deaths from COVID-19 by August, with a peak of nearly 3,000 a day, based on a steep climb in daily deaths early in the outbreak.

The analysts also claim discussions over “herd immunity” led to a delay in the UK introducing physical distancing measures, which were brought in from 23 March in England when the coronavirus daily death toll was 54. Portugal, by comparison, had just one confirmed death when distancing measures were imposed.

The report says the newly released data is disputed by scientists whose modelling of the likely shape of the UK epidemic is relied on by the government. Professor Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College London, said the IHME figures on “healthcare demand” – including hospital bed use and deaths – were twice as high as they should be.

The report says the IHME bases its forecasts in large part on the trajectory of deaths rather than case numbers and the speed with which distancing measures were put in place. The UK will be severely short of beds, it finds. Germany, by contrast, is predicted to have enough hospital beds, including ICU beds, needed for its peak. The IHME predicts Germany will have 8,802 deaths in total by 4 August. France will have enough general beds but will be about 4,000 short of ICU beds at the peak, says the forecast. There are projected to be just over 15,000 deaths there. Both Italy and Spain are past their peaks, says the IHME.

The high predicted numbers of UK deaths were driven by three factors, the IHME said: what had happened in other countries that are ahead in their epidemics, such as Italy and Spain; what had happened so far in the UK; and when physical distancing measures were put in place.

In the early stages of the UK outbreak, deaths climbed steeply, which the IHME says is a major driver of predicted deaths. The flirtation in government with the idea of “herd immunity” as a way out of the epidemic meant there was a delay in implementing physical distancing until 23 March, when there were already 54 daily deaths.

Meanwhile, a computer model used by the White House projects close to 82,000 COVID-19 deaths in the United States by August 4, assuming the country implements full social distancing until the end of May.

The 81,766-death projection is a slightly less grim figure than the 93,531 cited earlier by the Trump administration. The model projects that the country may need fewer hospital beds, ventilators and other equipment than previously estimated, and that some states may reach their peak of COVID-19 deaths sooner than expected.

[link url="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-will-be-europes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts"]Full report in The Guardian[/link]

[link url="https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom"]Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projections[/link]

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