The Western Cape may have already reached the peak of its coronavirus outbreak. Business Day reports that this is according to South Africa’s biggest medical scheme administrator, Discovery Health CEO Ryan Noach said there were signs the province may have already reached its peak, as the attack rate and private hospital bed occupancy rates had fallen significantly in the past few weeks. The attack rate is the proportion of people who become ill with a disease in a set time period.
Western Cape was the first province to see soaring COVID-19 infections, and last week said its latest models project a peak in infections in late July or early August.
“On 21 June the attack rate peaked at 24 per 100,000 lives per day. Since then it has come down to about 17 per 100,000 lives (per day). It has flattened off a bit now, and one of either two things is going to happen: either it is going to have a second peak, which would be unusual, or it will continue its downward trajectory. The next few days will tell,” he said.
“What is also relevant is that the (private) hospital bed occupancy across the country is 55% … but this week Western Cape is below 40%,” he said. The private hospital bed occupancy rate had been as high as 70% in the Western Cape, he is quoted as saying shortly after addressing a seminar hosted by Absa Healthcare. By contrast, private hospital bed occupancy in Gauteng was around the 65% mark, he said.
Last week the Western Cape Health Department said it had revised its coronavirus projections and expected a flatter but more deadly epidemic curve that would peak in late July or August and then hold sway until at least November. It previously anticipated a steep surge in late June, which has not materialised to the extent that was expected. A flatter trajectory would mean less pressure on health services because the number of patients would be spread out over a longer period.
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