South Africa has less than half the ventilators that the health department estimates it will be needed to treat patients at the peak of the COVID-19 crisis. Business Day reports that the gap, contained in figures provided to parliament by the department, is a stark reminder of why the government has imposed stringent controls on travel, trade and social gatherings to try and slow transmission of the coronavirus in South Africa.
The Health Department’s estimates show South Africa currently has 3,216 ventilators, with 2,105, or roughly two-thirds, in the private sector. It puts the projected need at 7,000, based on modelling of the epidemic that puts the peak demand for hospital beds in June. The report says the figures are contained in a PowerPoint presentation circulated after a virtual meeting of parliament’s portfolio committee on health.
Health Department acting director-general, Anban Pillay said the department had placed orders with suppliers for additional ventilators, and several initiatives were under way to develop domestic production of these devices. “SOEs (state-owned enterprises) such as Denel are looking at producing these locally. There are a number of other initiatives in the private sector as well to develop our own capacity to produce ventilators,” he said.
Pillay, said between 25,000 and 70,000 hospital beds would be required for COVID-19 patients at the epidemic’s peak, and between 4,000 and 14,000 ICU beds. Work was under way to identify sites for field hospitals, including stadiums, convention centres and military facilities, and provinces were assessing their mortuary capacity, he said.
The good news is that government’s stringent restrictions on travel, trade and social interaction have slowed the rate of new infections of COVID-19 and may have delayed the epidemic’s peak by several months, reports Business Day.
The government’s models had projected that without interventions to slow transmission of the coronavirus, there would be an overwhelming surge in patients by July, but that point was now projected for September, Pillay said. A delay would be significant, as it would provide the government more time to prepare.
Pillay warned against complacency, saying the number of seriously ill patients seeking care would still pose a challenge to the health system. “The curve is still quite high, relative to the capacity of the health system,” he said in a conference call with MP’s.
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