On Monday (1 February), Denmark became the first country to end all COVID-related laws, while Norway has scrapped most, writes MedicalBrief. The decision all comes down to the Omicron variant, says Denmark’s state modeller.
“With Omicron, we simply no longer need to flatten the curve as much as we used to,” said Dr Camilla Holten-Møller, head of the Expert Group for Mathematical Modelling at the Statens Serum Institut. It was on the strength of her groupʼs models of the Omicron wave that the Danish Epidemiological Commission recommended scrapping all the rules.
Denmark says it no longer considers the Covid-19 outbreak “a socially critical disease”, while Norway says society must ‘live with’ the virus. The Scandinavian countries both have high vaccination rates, and their health systems have not been overwhelmed despite the soaring number of cases.
The moves, especially in Scandinavian countries, to ease restrictions worries the World Health Organization. On Tuesday, the director-general of WHO warned that it was too early for countries to declare victory over COVID-19.
"More transmission means more deaths," Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a news conference. “We are concerned that a narrative has taken hold in some countries that because of vaccines and the high transmissibility of Omicron, and its lesser severity, preventing transmission is no longer possible.”
"We are not asking any country to reinstate containment. But we are calling on all countries to protect their populations using all available tools, not just vaccines."
In Denmark, event those who have the disease will be recommended to isolate for three days. Those without symptoms can continue to socialise.
Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told Danish radio that it was too early to know if measures might have to make a comeback. “I dare not say that it is a final goodbye to restrictions,” she said. “We do not know what will happen in the fall. Whether there will be a new variant.”
The head of the Danish Health Authority, Søren Brostrøm, said that his attention was on the number of people in ICUs, rather than on the number of infections. He said that number had “fallen and fallen and is incredibly low”. He said 32 coronavirus patients are in ICUs. Several weeks ago, it was up at 80.
The most visible Danish restriction disappearing is the wearing of face masks, which are no longer mandatory on public transport, shops and for standing clients in restaurant indoor areas. Authorities only recommend mask use in hospitals, health care facilities and nursing homes. In Norway, masks will remain mandatory in settings like public transport and shops where it is impossible to follow the recommended social distancing guidelines of one metre.
Norwegians will not have to quarantine if they are a contact of an infected person, although daily testing is recommended for five days, and the isolation period for Covid-19 cases will fall from six to four days. Remote working will no longer be obligatory and an unlimited number of people can visit other households and attend sporting events.
Most remarkably, reports reports Unherd News, Denmark is taking this step at a time when COVID-19 cases have never been higher, and are still growing. Perhaps most remarkable of all is that the move is being supported by all the political parties in Denmark.
The decision all comes down to the Omicron variant, which Holten-Møller estimates to be only 20% of the severity of the Delta variant of COVID.
“We see these really high case numbers each day, but we donʼt see it in the severity or in hospitals. Patients are going to hospital — of course, a lot of people with COVID — but they’re not necessarily ill from COVID,” Holten-Møllere said.
Overall, she considers Denmark to be in a very strong position.
“I definitely believe that SARS-Cov-2 will continue circulating during the summer period as well, and in winter, we will start to see case counts going up again simply because we have the waning immunity of the vaccine. But for now, I think with the Omicron, weʼre in a good place — we expect the springtime and summertime will be pretty quiet.”
On natural immunity, she said: “It’s something you need to consider: the state of the population immunity, how well is it built up? And what does it mean for the next waves?
“In Denmark, we saw that the immunity is primarily by vaccination. We actually had very low prevalence in Denmark, we didnʼt have very large waves.
“And probably that is also why the Omicron has an advantage right now, because itʼs an immune-evasive variant. In other countries, where you used to have high waves or high peaks of other variants, you might do better or see less Omicron simply because it doesnʼt have an advantage as it does in highly vaccinated countries like Denmark.”
Unherd News– Denmark’s state modeller: why we’ve ended all Covid laws (Open access)
See more from MedicalBrief archives:
Denmark scraps all restrictions, thanks to a COVID ‘super-weapon’
Rage across Europe: COVID lockdowns trigger riots and police fire
COVID lessons from a contrarian Sweden