As many as four out of five South Africans may have contracted COVID-19, indicating that the country may be one of the worldʼs hardest-hit nations by the disease, according to the chief actuary at Discovery Health, reports Bloomberg.
Chief Actuary Emile Stipp based his calculations on the countryʼs case-fatality rate and excess deaths, a measure of the number of fatalities compared with a historical average. They are thought to provide a more accurate picture of the impact of the pandemic than the official toll.
“If we know the mortality rate of COVID, we can deduce the likely infection level,” Stipp said in an emailed response to questions.
The infection rate of between 70% and 80%, as estimated by Stipp, is high by global standards. That could push South Africa close to so-called herd immunity, estimated at between 80% and 90% by the Infectious Diseases Society of America. Still, itʼs possible that the delta variant of the virus could reinfect those who contracted other strains.
Deaths data
In England only 18% of blood donors had antibodies showing prior infection, Public Health England said earlier this month. That number jumped to 97% when those with antibodies from vaccinations were included. About 61% of Englandʼs population is fully inoculated, compared with 7.1% in South Africa.
Stipp said he based his assessment on the assumption that 90% of excess deaths reported by the South African Medical Research Council were due to COVID-19. The SAMRC estimates South Africaʼs excess death number at 238,949 during the pandemic, compared with an official COVID-19 death toll of 78,377. The countryʼs case fatality rate is 3%.
South Africa has the highest number of infections, with more than 2.6 million confirmed, and deaths in Africa, notes Bloomberg. It also has the most widespread testing and monitoring of cause of death.
In a 13 May presentation to tourism bodt Satsa, Stipp estimated that 62.1% of South Africans had contracted the virus, a number heʼs since revised. The Eastern Cape, where 91.1% of the population was thought to have been infected, was the worst-hit province, and Gauteng, at 43.4%, and North West, at 35%, the least-affected. The latter two provinces have posted record pandemic-era excess deaths in the countryʼs third wave of infections, which is yet to fully subside.
Surveys of blood donors in January and May put South Africaʼs overall prior infection rate at 42.8%.
Bloomberg article – Death data shows 80% of South Africans may have had COVID
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SA and world COVID deaths 3x higher than official figures — The Economist
MRC: Eastern Cape COVID-19 deaths 'vastly underestimated'