A steady decline in the infection rate and other critical indicators have raised hopes that the worst of the pandemic's first wave is over,
Noting a drastic decrease in the number of COVID-19 infections, Health Minister Zweli Mkhize has hinted that South Africans can expect good news this week, reports The Times. His team is preparing to make recommendations to the National Coronavirus Command Council (NCCC) around the easing of lockdown restrictions.
The Forum of South African Directors-General (Fosad) has recommended to the NCCC that South Africa be moved to lockdown level 2 as early as this week.
Mkhize said the downward trend in cases would be presented to President Cyril Ramaphosa this week. “We are preparing submissions. We will need to make recommendations around easing restrictions, and the NCCC will have to take a lot of issues into account. The president will give us guides as to what we are able to do,” said Mkhize.
Mkhize said Ramaphosa's guidance will be based on scientific evidence.
The Times reports that even as South Africa passed the grim milestone of 10,000 deaths, experts said there are strong signs that the Western Cape, Gauteng and the Eastern Cape have seen their surge. They warned, however, that KwaZulu-Natal has yet to reach its peak, and Professor Salim Abdool Karim, head of Mkhize's advisory committee on the outbreak, said he is "very worried" about his home province.
The report says the most dramatic sign that South Africa is over the worst is the number of daily infections, which has almost halved since peaking at 13,944 on 24 July. And the feared overwhelming of medical facilities, which the lockdown was designed to prevent, has not occurred. The Nasrec field hospital in Gauteng is only half full, a field hospital in Cape Town is being dismantled and shipped to the Eastern Cape, and KwaZulu-Natal hospitals should be able to cope, Mkhize is quoted in the report as saying.
Experts are crediting South Africa 's strict and early lockdown for the declining infection rate. In another positive sign, the recovery rate rose above 70% this week, helped by the use of dexamethasone, which has reduced intensive care deaths by a quarter since it was introduced on June 16.
Professor Debbie Bradshaw, chief specialist scientist at the South African Medical Research Council, said the latest "excess deaths" report she co-authored "is indicating that in addition to the peak having been reached in the Western Cape, it has likely been reached in Gauteng and the Eastern Cape as well".
Council for Scientific and Industrial Research senior researcher Ridhwaan Suliman, who is tracking COVID-19 in his personal capacity, said in the report that the rate of infection is stabilising and the steady positivity rate in tests over the past three weeks is encouraging. However, it is still high "and we're not out of the woods until we increase testing, significantly reduce the positivity rate and gain a more informed understanding of where the virus is spreading".
Abdool Karim said it is too early to say South Africa has gained the upper hand over COVID-19. "Our hospital admissions are coming down. Our cases are coming down, so it's pretty compelling that actually we now are on the downward slope," he said. "But it could change any minute. It is a promising trend but too early to make any firm conclusion. You can't become complacent. You can't stop your prevention. The moment you stop, this thing comes back."
The Times says Mkhize has, meanwhile, warned of the possibility of a second wave and urged South Africans to stay on guard.
[link url="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2020-08-12-lockdown-level-2-zweli-mkhize-on-easing-restrictions/"]Full report in The Times[/link]
[link url="https://www.timeslive.co.za/sunday-times/news/2020-08-09-we-have-reason-to-be-optimistic-how-sa-is-taming-covid-19-storm/"]Full report in The Times[/link]