Tuesday, 23 April, 2024
HomeSouth AfricaGovt secrecy over COVID modelling is 'to avoid panic and stigma'

Govt secrecy over COVID modelling is 'to avoid panic and stigma'

The Presidency says the government's secrecy over the mathematical modelling it has based its COVID-19 policies on, is because it wants to “to avoid panic… and we're also mindful of the stigma of the virus,” reports Sunday Times.

South Africa’s government has admitted it has been less than transparent over measures taken regarding the COVID-19 pandemic – apparently to avoid panic. This, says a Sunday Times report, was conceded by President Cyril Ramaphosa's spokesperson, Khusela Diko, after leading experts questioned why COVID-19 modelling data is being kept under wraps.

The decision follows heavy criticism of an earlier model on which the strict lockdown was based. It projected thousands more infections and deaths than South Africa has experienced to date. “We don't want to put these models out to the public as if they are the gospel truth,” Diko said. “There is an element where we want to avoid panic in communities, and we're also mindful of the stigma of the virus.”

But constitutional and medical experts are calling for greater transparency. Professor Landon Myer, of the University of Cape Town's school of public health and family medicine, said: “If there is one massive criticism government is coming in for, it is a lack of transparency about who is getting tested, why they are getting tested and details of the mathematical models they are using. The more people look at things, the closer we are to getting it right.”

Constitutional law expert Wesley Hayes said: “I fear that should the government fail to act transparently, the good work undertaken by our President at the start of this State of Disaster is and will be undone.”

Public accountability advocate Paul Hoffman said withholding the information was unconstitutional. “Is the public too stupid to know what's going on? What the department needs to understand is that we live in a participatory democracy, and the Constitution enjoins them to be open, accountable and responsible,” he said. “If they say models cannot be made public, they are in breach of the Constitution on all three grounds.”

Co-operative Governance Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma has defended the state’s disputed decision to continue its cigarette ban and denied any suggestion that she and President Cyril Ramaphosa were “at odds” over it. “There is nothing sinister in a change of position following a consultative process … in fact the very nature of consultation is that change may result,” Dlamini-Zuma stated in court papers filed on Friday, in response to the urgent challenge to the tobacco ban by the FairTrade Independent Tobacco Association (Fita), says a Business Day report.

Dlamini-Zuma previously told the nation that a decision to allow the sale of tobacco products during the current phase, which started on 1 May was being reversed. This was just six days after Ramaphosa had said such sales would be allowed.

On why Ramaphosa initially made that announcement she states in her court papers: “My understanding is that the President made this statement based on the view that the NCCC (National Coronavirus Command Council) had taken on the issue at the time”. Dlamini-Zuma contends that Fita’s cigarette ban court case, which is one of four potential legal challenges to the lawfulness of the NCCC and its decisions, is “not urgent” and should only be heard in the week of 9 June – a possible indication that the state’s level four lockdown will remain in place for at least another month, suggests Business Day. It notes Fita is expected to respond to that argument in coming days.

Dlamini-Zuma and Cabinet Secretary Cassius Lubisi have reiterated that the minutes that record the council’s discussions about the cigarette ban are “secret” and cannot be open to public scrutiny. According to Business Day, Lubisi states in court papers that the disclosure of these minutes “during this time of crisis would seriously jeopardise the government’s decision-making processes and as a result the management of the national State of Disaster as a whole”.

Fita insists that its legal action is partly driven by a demand for government transparency about how and why the command council made its determination about the need for a tobacco ban, seemingly then reversed that decision and then backtracked on its reversal.

Dlamini-Zuma says the government will provide a “record” of the material that led to the council’s initial decision to lift the cigarette ban, and then the council and Cabinet’s subsequent decision to reverse it. But, says the report, she is adamant that the council’s minutes cannot be included in this record.

[link url="https://www.timeslive.co.za/sunday-times/news/2020-05-10-government-keeping-information-on-virus-under-wraps-to-avoid-covid-19-panic/"]Full Sunday Times report[/link]

[link url="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2020-05-10-there-was-nothing-sinister-in-tobacco-ban-decision-nkosazana-dlamini-zuma-says/"]Full Business Day report[/link]

MedicalBrief — our free weekly e-newsletter

We'd appreciate as much information as possible, however only an email address is required.