Since 2008, when schoolgirls were first vaccinated against HPV (human papillomavirus), around 200 lives have been saved in England alone, and the risks of children who are vaccinated now – aged 12-13 – dying of cervical cancer before 30 have been reduced to almost zero, according to recent research published in The Lancet.
The BBC reports that the landmark study – the first of its kind – shows that deaths have fallen dramatically since the jab was first offered almost two decades ago.
Between 2020 and 2024, no cervical cancer deaths were recorded in women aged 20 to 24, the first time in more than five years.
Without vaccination, around 23 deaths would have been expected.
“It’s incredible to think that a single jab can almost eliminate a particular type of cancer," said Professor Peter Sasieni, the lead researcher at Queen Mary University of London.
Overall, cervical cancer is still the 14th most common cancer among females in the UK, with 3 300 people diagnosed every year. HPV causes 99% of those cases.
Most HPV infections clear up without any problems, but some cause abnormal cell changes and can lead to cancer years later.
The report’s authors expect the numbers dying from the disease to continue to fall as more are given a HPV jab and vaccinated people grow older.
Cancer Research UK, which funded the research, described the findings as an “incredible milestone”, but warned that vaccination rates in England were running below recommended levels.
“We know the HPV vaccine is extremely effective at stopping cervical cancer before it starts, and for the first time these findings show it is saving lives,” said the organisation’s chief executive Michelle Mitchell.
Drop in deaths ‘tip of the iceberg’
Sasieni, who specialises in cancer epidemiology, described the reduction in deaths since the introduction of the vaccine as the “tip of the iceberg”.
“As vaccinated generations grow older, we’ll see many more lives saved from cervical cancer,” he added.
“New research shows just how vital it is to keep HPV vaccination levels high so more people are protected.”
The UK Government has pledged to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem by 2040, but the latest data show vaccination rates countrywide have fallen below recommended levels.
Statistics from the UK Health Security Agency shows that 76% of girls in England were vaccinated by 15 in 2024-25, well below the 90% that the WHO says is needed to eliminate cervical cancer.
“It’s essential that the UK Government and health systems urgently address this with targeted action to reach communities where uptake is the lowest,” said Michelle Mitchell at Cancer Research UK.
Despite the rollout of the HPV vaccine, women aged 25 to 64 are still advised to attend cervical screening (formerly known as a smear test).
Boys have also been given the HPV vaccine since 2019, which helps to protect them against anal, penis, throat and mouth cancers, and reduces the risk of them passing the virus on to girls.
The Department of Health and Social Care in England said the study showed the “extraordinary impact of the HPV vaccination”.
“We are boosting vaccine uptake so that more young people benefit from this life-saving protection – including rolling out catch-up HPV vaccination campaigns via community pharmacies,” said a spokesman.
HPV self-testing kits are also being sent out to women who have not yet come forward for screening, he added.
Study details
Cervical cancer mortality trends following HPV vaccination in England, 2001–24: an analysis of population-based mortality data
Peter Sasieni, Milena Falcaro.
Published in The Lancet on 17 June 2026
Summary
Background
Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination is a key component of global cervical cancer elimination strategies. While substantial declines in cervical cancer incidence have been observed in several countries, evidence of its effect on mortality is scarce. England introduced a national HPV vaccination programme in 2008 for girls aged 12–13 (achieving 80%–90% coverage before the COVID-19 pandemic), with a catch-up campaign in 2008–10 for girls aged 14–18. We aimed to investigate trends in cervical cancer mortality and to estimate the reduction in cervical cancer deaths in young women in England following the introduction of HPV vaccination.
Methods
We analysed population-based cervical cancer mortality data from England between 2001 and 2024 among women aged 20–24, 25–29, and 30–34 years. HPV vaccination coverage by birth cohort was obtained from official reports and used to estimate, for each age group and calendar year of death, the proportion of women who had been vaccinated. We plotted observed and adjusted age-specific mortality rates against year of death and overlaid a smoothed curve. Poisson regression applied to the numbers of deaths was used to estimate the relative risk reduction in vaccinated women compared with what was expected in the absence of vaccination, assuming no herd immunity. Confidence intervals were obtained by inverting the likelihood ratio test.
Findings
In women aged 20–24 years between 2020 and 2024, in whom vaccination coverage was around 88–90% at age 12–13 years, no deaths occurred, compared with 23·1 expected deaths based on historical rates, corresponding to a mortality reduction of 100% (95% CI 84–100). In earlier birth cohorts, who were offered vaccination up to age 18 years with coverage of around 63–87%, mortality reductions of 80% (51–94) in women aged 20–24 years in 2015–19, and 69% (55–79) in women aged 25–29 years in 2020–24 were observed. The relative risk reduction in vaccinated women was estimated from population-level data to be 100% (95% CI 81 to 100) in women aged 20–24 years, 100% (89 to 100) in those aged 25–29 years, and 63% (–13 to 100) in those aged 30–34 years. Up until the end of 2024, HPV vaccination in England was associated with a reduction of around 199·6 cervical cancer deaths (95% CI 125·0–274·2).
Interpretation
Our findings provide the first robust national-level evidence, albeit observational, that high HPV vaccination coverage is associated with a substantial reduction in cervical cancer deaths. This is shown by the substantial decrease in cervical cancer deaths observed among women aged 20–29 years in England, particularly among those vaccinated at ages 12–13 years. These findings support the achievability of the WHO goal of eliminating cervical cancer as a public health problem, and efforts should be made to achieve high vaccine uptake among young adolescents globally.
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