After watching the number of excess deaths decline for the fourth successive week, The Times reports that SA Medical Research Council (SAMRC) experts say that the end is in sight. The SAMRC team has issued weekly reports about the number of deaths in excess of a prediction based on patterns of mortality in 2018 and 2019, combined with a lower number of deaths as a result of the national lockdown.
They say the estimated excess deaths from natural causes reached 39,087 for the period between 6 May – when statistics began to depart sharply from the prediction – and 18 August. In the same period, the health department reported 12,112 deaths from COVID-19.
However, the SAMRC scientists said excess deaths were declining so rapidly in some provinces and cities, or had been declining for so long, that they were starting to approach the predicted number.
"The number of deaths from natural causes has continued to drop from the peak experienced during the week starting 15 July. The number remains significantly higher than the predicted number for persons 1-59 years and for persons 60+ years," the SAMRC team said.
According to the report, the council explained that estimating the number of COVID-19 and collateral deaths – those arising as a result of the impact of the epidemic and its effect on the provision of health care – was not straightforward. Although most excess deaths were probably due to COVID-19, "it is unclear at this stage what proportion are COVID deaths and what proportion are collateral deaths".
[link url="https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2020-08-26-excess-deaths-will-soon-be-a-thing-of-the-past-medical-research-council/"]Full report in The Times[/link]