Coronavirus spreads fastest at 4ºC, government scientists have decided, amid mounting concern over the threat of a winter resurgence. The Daily Telegraph reports that the UK Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) is understood to be focusing on the precise temperature as Melbourne, which is currently in its coldest month, re-entered a six-week lockdown due to a steep spike in cases, as shown below.
The report says a senior member said COVID-19 “likes” four degrees best – “it survives well at four degrees (Celsius)”. The view, which helps explain how the virus exploded around the UK in February and March, was later supported by independent scientists.
It reflects a growing consensus that heat – in particular from sunlight – harms the virus’s ability to survive outside the body.
However, once below 4ºC, viral particles begin an intermittent freeze-thaw process which also hastens their decline.
The coldest months in Britain are January and February, when average temperatures have fluctuated between 3º and 5ºC in three of the last six winters.
According to the report, Sage is understood to be increasingly confident that countries with temperate climates and with relatively severe flu seasons, such as Britain, will also be affected worse by COVID-19 in winter.
[link url="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/10/coronavirus-thrives-4degc-scientists-find-raising-fears-winter/?WT.mc_id=e_DM1265235&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_FAM_New_ES_Sat-B&utmsource=email&utm_medium=Edi_FAM_New_ES_Sat-B20200711&utm_campaign=DM1265235"]Full report in The Daily Telegraph[/link]