Nearly half of all European countries have recorded increases in new COVID-19 cases in the past week, according to an analysis of data from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center.
Among the countries with the biggest recent surges are Finland, where new cases jumped by 84% in its weekly case total, to nearly 62,500 weekly cases; Switzerland, whose weekly total rose by 45% to 182,190; and the United Kingdom, which had a 31% increase to a weekly total of 414,480 new cases. Austria, Belgium, France, Germany and Italy have also recorded double-digit percentage increases in their weekly tallies.
The rising numbers are in contrast to trends in the US, where daily cases, hospitalisations and deaths continue to decline. The US’s daily death toll has dropped by 29% in the past two weeks, NBC News’ tally shows.
Lawrence Young, a virologist at the University of Warwick in England, said Europe’s rise in infections might be a result of the spread of the Omicron subvariant (BA.2), paired with waning immunity and the relaxation of mitigation policies.
“The US certainly needs to take note and consider the impact of yet another more transmissible variant,” he said.
BA.2 is considered a subtype of Omicron because although it has small variations that set it apart, they’re not enough for it to be a new lineage. Still, some research suggests BA.2 is even more transmissible than the original omicron strain.
Disease experts in the US say they are watching Europe’s trends closely.
“There is certainly a risk that the US could face another surge in cases, as Europe is seeing,” said Dr Gavin Yamey, a professor of global health and public policy at Duke University. “We have lower rates of vaccination and booster coverage than many European nations, so a surge here could translate into rising hospitalisations.”
But experts aren’t ready to say definitively that a major new COVID wave is on the horizon globally, nor that there’s cause for immediate concern in America. Rather, they believe it’s time to be vigilant, and to act pre-emptively, reports NBC.
“We should take the opportunity provided by the current lull to prepare for a possible further wave or variant of concern,” Yamey said. To do that, he added, the US government should expand vaccination and booster coverage and ensure high-quality masks and rapid tests are freely available.
Many European officials have recently announced the end of pandemic-related restrictions. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson lifted all remaining restrictions last month, pledging that when future surges arise, the responses will rely on vaccines and treatments rather than lockdowns.
France has also loosened many of its COVID rules, and people no longer have to show proof of vaccination to enter restaurants, theatres and other public spaces.
Germany, too, is set to lift most of its COVID mitigation policies, even though Health Minister Karl Lauterbach described the rise in cases as “critical”. According to Germany’s Robert Koch Institute, more than 250,000 new cases were reported last Wednesday (16 March), a record for a single day. Nearly 250 deaths were recorded.
“We cannot be satisfied with a situation in which 200 to 250 people are dying every day, and the prospect is that in a few weeks, more people will die,” Lauterbach told reporters, according to The Associated Press.
In America, federal health officials have started basing risk assessments and public guidance on hospitalisation rates rather than infections.
“This updated approach focuses on directing our prevention efforts towards protecting people at high risk for severe illness and preventing hospitals and health care systems from being overwhelmed,” Dr Rochelle Walensky, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), told reporters last month.
China, by contrast, continues to enact strict measures to stave off the virus’s spread, implementing new lockdowns in recent days in Shanghai and other cities where there have been COVID spikes.
Experts say China’s surges differ from Europe’s, however, because the Chinese population has lower levels of immunity against the Omicron variant.
“They haven’t deployed vaccines that are very effective against this particular variant, this Omicron variant, and so they’re very vulnerable to spread right now,” said Dr Scott Gottlieb, former US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) commissioner, on CNBC.
Michael Head, a senior research fellow in global health at the University of Southampton in England, said he “would not be surprised” if more countries start considering additional shots beyond a single booster in the months ahead.
“There are many claims that we’re finished with the pandemic,” Head said. “Alas, this particular novel coronavirus is nowhere near finished with us.”
See more from MedicalBrief archives:
A summation of what is known about Omicron’s BA.2 variant
Increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection associated with Omicron — South African study
Scepticism from EU experts over abolition of all COVID curbs in England
Denmark scraps all COVID laws, despite surge in infections
China: Millions in lockdown as new cases hit two-year high, testing its ‘zero COVID’ resolve