A recent analysis – the largest of its kind – suggests the number of men diagnosed with prostate cancer worldwide could double to 2.9m a year by 2040, with annual deaths predicted to rise by 85%.
Prostate cancer is already a major cause of death and disability – the most common form of male cancer in more than 100 countries – and with populations ageing and life expectancy rising globally, the study forecasts a dramatic surge in cases and deaths over the next 15 years.
The researchers said diagnoses are projected to increase from 1.4m a year in 2020 to 2.9m by 2040, translating to 330 men – every hour – being told they have the disease, reports The Guardian.
While the experts anticipate the global deaths over the 20-year period to skyrocket from 375 000 in 2020 to almost 700 000 by 2040, they say the true death toll may well be higher because of under-diagnosis and missing data in low- and middle-income countries.
The findings were published in The Lancet as part of its landmark commission on prostate cancer, and were presented at the European Association of Urology’s annual congress in Paris this weekend.
As the main risk factors for prostate cancer – being 50 or older and having a family history of the disease – are unavoidable, it will be impossible to prevent the surge in cases simply via lifestyle changes or public health interventions.
However, wider awareness of the symptoms of the disease, access to testing initiatives, earlier diagnosis, and advances in treatments could still help reduce the burden and save lives, according to the authors of the 40-page report.
“As more and more men around the world live to middle and old age, there will be an inevitable rise in the number of prostate cancer cases,” said lead author Nick James, a professor of prostate cancer research at the Institute of Cancer Research, London, and a consultant clinical oncologist at the Royal Marsden NHS foundation trust.
“We know this surge in cases is coming, so we need to start planning and take action now.
“Evidence-based interventions, such as improved early detection and education programmes, will help to save lives and prevent ill health from prostate cancer in the years to come.”
He said there was a global need for new and improved ways to test for the disease, to reduce over-diagnosis and over-treatment while detecting potentially lethal tumours earlier.
The Lancet article
See more from MedicalBrief archives:
MRI scans ‘revolutionise’ prostate cancer diagnosis – UK study
Trial looks at MRI scans to predict prostate cancer risk
Monitoring, not treatment, better for low-risk prostate cancer – US study
Prostate cancer patients can delay treatment without increased death risk – long-term study
High Intensity Training regimen may inhibit prostate cancer growth — ERASE trial