South Africa might see a drop in its fertility rate, resulting not just from the COVID-19 pandemic but also the accompanying economic downturn, says Stats SA in its mid-year population estimates report.
The report, released last week, provides estimates of the population of SA and includes current indicators of fertility, mortality and migration.
It said empirical data on fertility in SA would only be reflected in the recorded live birth occurrences and registration of 2021 and the nine months after, but numerous studies showed that in uncertain times people were more prudent about having children.
One study of 22 developed countries, for example, found a decline in immediate fertility with higher unemployment among men and women, when faced with economic uncertainty, reports Business Insider SA.
In SA, the pre-COVID-19 unemployment rate increased 3.4 percentage points from 29.1% in the fourth quarter of 2019, to 32.5% in the fourth quarter of 2020. By the fourth quarter of 2021, the official unemployment rate further increased to 35.3%, but declined in the first quarter of 2022 to 34.5%.
A heavy toll
The report noted that accompanying decreased job security, family routines involving domestic work, childcare, school supervision and other stressors had been shown to dissuade women from pregnancy post-COVID-19.
The pandemic lockdown restrictions on the movement of people could also have had an impact, “inadvertently prevented physical contact and thus delaying or even limiting possible pregnancy in the short-term”.
On the way down
If the fertility rate – the average number of children born alive to a woman in her lifetime during her childbearing years – were to decline, it would continue a trend that has seen a sharp decline in the number of women having children since 1994.
When SA became a democracy in 1994, the fertility rate was four children per woman. It fell to 2.7 in 2000 and is expected to fall to 2.34 in 2022.
Replacement fertility rate, the rate at which women give birth to enough children to sustain population levels, is 2.1.
The fertility rate should not be confused with the population growth rate, which is the annual average rate of change of a population size. The fertility rate only accounts for births during a period, while the population growth rate also considers the mortality rate.
Though the pandemic might see an overall decline in the fertility rate, it might also have a detrimental impact on the provision of reproductive health services, noted the report, with the impact of the lockdown measures affecting sexual and reproductive health services and access to contraception, prenatal care for mothers, rollout of anti-retrovirals and early treatment and diagnosis of diseases and illnesses.
Stats SA
Business Insider article – Covid-19 could lead to a drop in SA’s fertility rate – Stats SA (Open access)
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