A large study in 47 Western nations, published in BMJ Public Health, suggests that the “unprecedented” flood of nearly 3m pandemic-era excess deaths internationally since 2020 might be linked to Covid-19 vaccines, as well as other pandemic health strategies.
The study’s authors didn’t make any definitive claims about causality but rather recommended further investigation, including into the effect delayed healthcare had on excess mortality, most notably for cancer treatment.
The research found that apart from Covid deaths, there were about 1m excess deaths in 2020, 1.2m in 2021, and over 800 000 in 2022 – occurring in 43 of the countries in 2022, up from 41 countries in 2020.
The study noted that the Pfizer mRNA vaccine trial had a “36% higher risk of serious adverse events in the vaccine group”, or 18 per 10 000 vaccinated people, while Moderna had a 6% increased chance, or 7.1 per 10 000.
Serious adverse events by definition result in either “death”, are “life-threatening”, lead to hospitalisation, or cause “persistent/significant disability/incapacity”. Serious vaccine side-effects included ischaemic stroke, acute coronary syndrome, and brain haemorrhage.
Emphasised was the finding that excess deaths peaked in 2021 at 1.26m, when both the vaccines and lockdowns were present. There were 1.03m in 2020, pre-vaccine, and 800 000 in 2022, when health measures ended in most places.
There are two opposite narratives in response to the study, writes Verity. While the authors of the study suggest Covid vaccines could have caused these excess deaths there are data to turn this on its ear.
A study from the UK’s Office for National Statistics showed that the death rate from April 2021 to May 2023 was higher in the unvaccinated, even when Covid deaths were excluded. There are numerous other reasons why excess deaths have increased in the post-Covid years. It’s also possible that lockdowns and vaccines did not deliver as promised while both were coming to prominence in 2021.
The other narrative, writes Verity, is that it’s possible that lockdowns and vaccines did not deliver as promised and that Western leaders are “still not being truthful” about the efficacy and safety of the jab. Much research is indeed needed, and this is a troubling finding.
The study's authors, themselves, cite difficulties in interpreting the data. “This study has various significant limitations. Death reports may be incomplete due to delays. It may take weeks, months or years before a death is registered … Our data are collected at a country level and provide no detailed stratification for sociodemographic characteristics, such as age or gender.
“Consensus is lacking in the medical community regarding when a deceased infected with Covid-19 should be registered as a Covid-19 death. Indirect effects of containment measures have likely altered the scale and nature of disease burden for numerous causes of death since the pandemic. However, deaths caused by restricted healthcare utilisation and socioeconomic turmoil are difficult to prove.”
Nevertheless, the authors conclude, excess mortality has remained high in the Western world for three consecutive years, despite the implementation of Covid-19 containment measures and Covid-19 vaccines. This is unprecedented and should raise serious concerns.
“During the pandemic, it was emphasised by politicians and the media on a daily basis that every Covid-19 death mattered and every life deserved protection through containment measures and Covid-19 vaccines. In the aftermath of the pandemic, the same morale should apply.
“Every death needs to be acknowledged and accounted for, irrespective of its origin. Transparency towards potential lethal drivers is warranted. Cause-specific mortality data therefore need to be made available to allow more detailed, direct and robust analyses to determine the underlying contributors. Postmortem examinations need to be facilitated to allot the exact reason for death. Government leaders and policymakers need to thoroughly investigate underlying causes of persistent excess mortality and evaluate their health crisis policies.”
Study details
Excess mortality across countries in the Western World since the Covid-19 pandemic: ‘Our World in Data’ estimates of January 2020 to December 2022
Saskia Mostert, Marcel Hoogland, Minke Huibers, Gertjan Kaspers.
Published in BMJ Public Health on 3 June 2024
Abstract
Introduction
Excess mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic has been substantial. Insight into excess death rates in years after WHO’s pandemic declaration is crucial for government leaders and policymakers to evaluate their health crisis policies. This study explores excess mortality in the Western World from 2020 until 2022.
Methods
All-cause mortality reports were abstracted for countries using the ‘Our World in Data’ database. Excess mortality is assessed as a deviation between the reported number of deaths in a country during a certain week or month in 2020 until 2022, and the expected number of deaths in a country for that period under normal conditions. For the baseline of expected deaths, Karlinsky and Kobak’s estimate model was used. This model uses historical death data in a country from 2015 until 2019 and accounts for seasonal variation and year-to-year trends in mortality.
Results
The total number of excess deaths in 47 countries of the Western World was 3 098 456 from 1 January 2020 until 31 December 2022. Excess mortality was documented in 41 countries (87%) in 2020, 42 countries (89%) in 2021 and 43 countries (91%) in 2022. In 2020, the year of the Covid-19 pandemic onset and implementation of containment measures, records present 1 033 122 excess deaths (P-score 11.4%). In 2021, the year in which both containment measures and Covid-19 vaccines were used to address virus spread and infection, the highest number of excess deaths was reported: 1 256 942 excess deaths (P-score 13.8%). In 2022, when most containment measures were lifted and Covid-19 vaccines were continued, preliminary data present 808 392 excess deaths (P-score 8.8%).
Conclusions
Excess mortality has remained high in the Western World for three consecutive years, despite the implementation of containment measures and Covid-19
Verity article – Study: Covid Vaccine Potentially Correlated to Excess Death Increase (Open access)
See more from MedicalBrief archives:
Excess mortality estimates put global COVID deaths at more than 18m
JAMA study: 35% of excess US deaths tied to causes other than COVID-19
‘Almost all’ 62,000 excess SA deaths this year due to COVID-19
India pre-empts WHO: Claims ‘only’ 475,000 excess deaths in 2020
Thousands of Covid deaths tied to hydroxychloroquine – French study