A recent analysis in Britain has suggested that about 28% of older people in England who died of Covid-19 in the first 2.5 years of the pandemic would probably have lived for at least another five years if they had not been infected, reports CIDRAP.
For their study, which was published in PLOS One, scientists from the government’s Office for Health Improvement and Disparities in London used linked health data from March 2020 to September 2022 to estimate the survival of nearly 16m English people aged 65 and older had they not contracted Covid-19.
“Critics of the pandemic response have suggested that those who died were mostly very vulnerable and close to death,” they noted. “If this were true, the economic impact of measures to control the pandemic could not be justified in terms of any benefits in controlling mortality.”
This study, they said, differed from previous research on Covid-19 excess mortality in that it considered factors such as underlying illnesses, vaccination status and pandemic wave.
Covid cut life expectancy by four to five years
Women and men would probably have lived another 4.8 (interquartile range [IQR, 1.5 to 16) years and 4.4(IQR, 1.4 to 12.6) years, respectively, had they not contracted the virus. The survival difference was greatest in those aged 65 to 69 (median, 14.4 years [IQR, 0.5 to 38.8] for women and 9.9 years [IQR, 1.1 to 26.2] for men) and during the second pandemic wave (September 2020 to March 2021).
“We estimate that 23.5% of deaths aged 65 and over would not have been expected to survive more than one year,” the researchers wrote.
“However, 28% would have been expected to have survived for five years or more had they not had the disease.
“Life expectancy of those who died with Covid-19 was substantial and, based on our analysis of vulnerability, most of those who died at ages 65 and over are unlikely to have been close to death,” they added. “In future pandemics, real-time modelling of displacement would be helpful in assessing the mortality impact of the pandemic.”
Study details
Andrew Hughes, Sharmani Barnard, Clarissa Bauer-Staeb et al.
Published in PLOS One on 8 May 2026
Abstract
Background
Uncertainty about the prior health status of those dying during the pandemic has fuelled debate about its impact. To date, attempts to quantify life years lost during the pandemic have relied on using life tables without taking into account varying levels of vulnerability among those who died.
Methods
Using retrospective, linked data from March 2020 to September 2022 for the cohort of all individuals in England alive at outset, we quantified the risk of death, associated with a wide variety of comorbidities, using primary care and hospital data, as well as evidence of vaccination and Covid-19 infection. We then simulated the survival of every individual in the population with a positive Covid-19 test, with and without the assumption that Covid-19 affected their survival, taking account of their personal vulnerability. We used the difference between these simulated survival times to estimate mortality displacement (how long those who died would have lived, had they not tested positive). We used the displacement estimates for those aged 65 and older to revise estimates of excess deaths.
Results
We estimated median mortality displacement of 4.8 (IQR = 1.5 to 16) years for females and 4.4 (IQR = 1.4 to 12.6) years for males at ages 65 and over. We estimate 28% of those dying with Covid-19 aged 65 and over would have survived five years or more without the infection (66% for females aged 65–74).
Conclusions
Life expectancy of those who died with Covid-19 was substantial and, based on our analysis of vulnerability, most of those who died at age 65 and over are unlikely to have been close to death. In future pandemics, real-time modelling of displacement would be helpful in assessing the mortality impact of the pandemic.
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