Experts have predicted that cancer cases around the world was going to skyrocket, resulting in millions more fatalities by 2050. This will be largely due to increases in low and middle-income countries, they suggested.
Habtamu Bizuayehu at the University of Queensland in Australia and his team made the discovery by looking at recent figures for cases and death rates for 36 types of cancer in 185 countries from the Global Cancer Observatory database.
They then projected future cases and deaths by applying these rates to the 2050 population predictions from the United Nations Development Programme, reports New Scientist.
They found that the total number of cancer cases worldwide is expected to grow by nearly 77% between 2022 and 2050, which would mean an additional 15.3m cases in 2050 on top of the 20m in 2022.
Global cancer deaths are also projected to rise by almost 90% during this period, resulting in 8.8m more in 2050 compared with 2022, in which 9.7m people died from the disease.
The largest increases are expected in countries with low or middle rankings on the UN’s Human Development Index, which is based on average life expectancy, education level and income per person.
Cancer cases and deaths are, on average, anticipated to nearly triple by 2050 in countries with a low score, such as Niger and Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, countries with a very high score – such as Norway – are projected to see cases and deaths increase, on average, by more than 42% and 56%, respectively.
This reinforces other evidence that shows cancer cases are trending upwards, said Andrew Chan at Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston, who wasn’t involved with the study, published in JAMA Network Open.
Multiple factors are probably driving this, including people living longer, which raises the risk of cancer, he added.
However, the work didn’t account for the advent of new or more effective treatments.
Less-developed countries will probably see the greatest increases due to the “so-called Westernisation of populations”, Chan pointed out. “Some of the habits that we traditionally associate with higher risk of cancer, like rising rates of obesity and poor diet, are becoming a trend in low and middle-income countries.”
Study details
Global Disparities of Cancer and Its Projected Burden in 2050
Habtamu Mellie Bizuayehu, Kedir Ahmed, Allen Ross, et al.
Published in JAMA Network Open on 5 November 2024
Abstract
Importance
Cancer prevention and care efforts have been challenged by the Covid-19 pandemic and armed conflicts, resulting in a decline in the global Human Development Index (HDI), particularly in low- and middle-income countries. These challenges and subsequent shifts in health care priorities underscore the need to continuously monitor cancer outcome disparities and statistics globally to ensure delivery of equitable and optimal cancer prevention and care in uncertain times.
Objective
To measure the global burden of 36 cancers in 2022 by sex, age, and geographic location and to project future trends by 2050.
Design, Setting, and Participants
This cross-sectional study used population-based data from 2022 in 185 countries and territories were obtained from the Global Cancer Observatory database. Data extraction and analysis were carried out in April 2024.
Main Outcomes and Measures
Counts, rates, prevalence, mortality to incidence ratios (MIRs), and demography-based projections were used to characterize current and future cancer burden.
Results
This population-based study included 36 cancer types from 185 countries and territories. By 2050, 35.3 million cancer cases worldwide are expected, a 76.6% increase from the 2022 estimate of 20 million. Similarly, 18.5 million cancer deaths are projected by 2050, an 89.7% increase from the 2022 estimate of 9.7 million. Cancer cases and deaths are projected to nearly triple in low-HDI countries by 2050, compared to a moderate increase in very high–HDI countries (142.1% vs 41.7% for cancer cases and 146.1% vs 56.8% for cancer deaths). Males had a higher incidence and greater number of deaths in 2022 than females, with this disparity projected to widen by up to 16.0% in 2050. In 2022, the MIR for all cancers was 46.6%, with higher MIRs observed for pancreatic cancer (89.4%), among males (51.7%), among those aged 75 years or older (64.3%), in low-HDI countries (69.9%), and in the African region (67.2%).
Conclusions and Relevance
In this cross-sectional study based on data from 2022, cancer disparities were evident across HDI, geographic regions, age, and sex, with further widening projected by 2050. These findings suggest that strengthening access to and quality of health care, including universal health insurance coverage, is key to providing evidence-based cancer prevention, diagnostics, and care.
New Scientist article – Cancer deaths expected to nearly double worldwide by 2050 (Open access)
JAMA Open Network – Global Disparities of Cancer and Its Projected Burden in 2050 (Open access)
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